Are mortgage rates going down in 2024?
Mortgage rates are likely to trend down in 2024. Depending on which forecast you look at for housing market predictions in 2024, 30-year mortgage rates could end up somewhere between 5.8% and 6.1% by the end of the year.
While mortgage forecasters base their projections on different data, most experts and market watchers predict rates will move toward 6% or lower by the end of 2024. Here's a look at where some major housing authorities expect average mortgage rates to land.
Projected Interest Rates in the Next Five Years
ING's interest rate predictions indicate 2024 rates starting at 4%, with subsequent cuts to 3.75% in the second quarter. Then, 3.5% in the third, and 3.25% in the final quarter of 2024. In 2025, ING predicts a further decline to 3%.
Goldman said it expects 30-year mortgage rates will drop to 6.3% by the end of 2024, and fall slightly in 2025 to 6% as the Fed starts to cut interest rates. Previously, Goldman had expected the 30-year mortgage rate to be at 7.1% by the end of 2024 and at 6.6% by the end of 2025.
The bottom line
Sure, mortgage rates could fall to 3% at some point, but chances are that's not going to happen anytime soon. Moreover, waiting for rates to drop before you buy your home could backfire. Instead, consider buying your house now and refinancing your mortgage when rates improve.
Instead, we'll probably see some gradual 25-basis-point cuts here and there. If that happens, rates could fall to closer to 6% by the end of 2024. Channel expects rates to remain high compared to the levels seen during the height of the pandemic, when average 30-year mortgage rates were around 2.65%.
The Fed plans to cut interest rates several times in 2024, aiming to bring the federal funds rate down to 4.6% around May or June. Rates have sat between 5.25% to 5.5% since last July, and the strong labor market and cooling inflation are signaling national economic health.
Considering these factors, a conservative prediction for 30-year fixed mortgage rates by 2025 could be in the range of 5.5% to 7%. This estimate accounts for potential economic growth, the Federal Reserve's likely monetary policy responses, global market influences, and real estate market conditions.
The 10-year treasury constant maturity rate in the U.S. is forecast to decline by 0.8 percent by 2026, while the 30-year fixed mortgage rate is expected to fall by 1.6 percent. From seven percent in the third quarter of 2023, the average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to reach 5.4 percent in 2026.
Changes to Interest Rate Projections
In CBO's last full set of economic projections, which were released in February, the organization estimated that interest rates on the federal funds rate would rise to a fourth-quarter average of 4.8 percent in 2023 before falling to 2.6 percent by mid-2025.
How high will mortgage rates go in 2024?
In some cases, we receive a commission from our partners; however, our opinions are our own. Inflation and Fed hikes have pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high. 30-year mortgage rates are currently expected to fall to somewhere between 5.8% and 6.1% in 2024.
While the shift in monetary policy has spurred a sharp drop mortgage rates this quarter, Fannie Mae noted a limit to how far these rates will fall: it projects that the 30-year fixed rate will average 6.7% in 2024, before falling to 6.2% in 2025.
Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and Mortgage Bankers Association
In its November 2023 Mortgage Finance Forecast, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) anticipates 30-year rates starting in 2024 at 7.1% and gradually declining to 6.1% at the close of the year before dipping as low as 5.5% in 2025.
Higher interest rates typically have two effects on the housing market that can help drive down prices: They price some buyers out of the market, which is good for the buyers who remain, and they typically have the effect of putting downward pressure on housing prices, which is good for buyers.
“So far, the first quarter of 2024 has been very similar to the first quarter of 2023. Inflation has been up in some categories and made rates move more upward than downward. Rates came down at the end of 2023 but the most recent Fed meeting should sign that there won't be any rate cuts until summer 2024.
A “good” mortgage rate is different for everyone. In today's market, a good mortgage interest rate can fall in the mid-6% range, depending on several factors, such as the type of mortgage, loan term, and individual financial circ*mstances.
Legally speaking, there's no limit to how many times you can refinance your mortgage, so you can refinance as often as it makes financial sense for you. Depending on your lender and the type of loan, though, you might encounter a waiting period — also called a seasoning requirement.
However, there are some general things we can say about the conditions in which mortgage rates tend to rise. Typically, mortgage rates are rising because inflation is going up and the Federal Reserve has changed the target on the federal funds rate to get prices back under control.
What is the current Fed interest rate? Right now, the Fed interest rate is 5.25% to 5.50%. The FOMC established that rate in late July 2023. At its most recent meeting in January, the committee decided to leave the rate unchanged.
Will interest rates go down in 2026?
But we expect the Fed will begin cutting rates in March 2024—bringing the federal-funds rate to 3.75%–4.00% by the end of 2024. We expect the Fed to continue cutting until early 2026, ultimately bringing the federal-funds rate down by over 300 basis points.
| Product | Interest rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed-rate | 6.932% | 7.015% |
| 20-year fixed-rate | 6.804% | 6.903% |
| 15-year fixed-rate | 6.067% | 6.198% |
| 10-year fixed-rate | 6.040% | 6.224% |
If inflation continues to fall as it did throughout 2023, industry insiders are optimistic that average mortgage rates could fall below 5% again in 2024.
Following the Fed "pivot" in December, an anticipation of more dovish policy, and the recent decline in interest rates, our mortgage rate forecast has been revised meaningfully lower this month. We expect the FRM30 rate to average 6.1 percent in 2024 and 5.6 percent in 2025.
McBride shares that while the high-rate environment will persist, rates will ease for most borrowers in 2024. Increased competition between lenders may help drivers secure a good rate. However, he warns, “don't expect auto loan rates to fall enough to offset the increases we've seen over the past couple of years.”
